파리협정 10주년을 앞두고, 세이브더칠드런과 브뤼셀 자유대학교(Vrije Univesiteit Brussel, VUB)가 발표한 연구에 따르면, 현재의 기후 공약 하에서는 지구 평균기온이 산업화 이전 대비 2.7°C 상승할 가능성이 높으며, 이 경우 2020년에 태어난 약 1억 2천만 명의 아동 중 약 1억 명, 즉 83%가 전례 없는 폭염에 평생 노출될 것으로 나타났습니다. 

그러나 만약 세계가 파리협정의 목표인 1.5°C 상승 제한을 달성할 경우, 극심한 폭염에 영향을 받는 5세 아동의 수는 6,200만 명으로 감소하며, 3,800만 명의 차이가 발생하게 됩니다. 
이는 화석연료의 사용 및 보조금 중단을 신속히 추진하여 아동을 보호하는 것이 시급함을 보여주고 있습니다. 

극심한 폭염은 아동에게 치명적이며, 신체적·정신적 건강에 심각한 영향을 주고, 식량과 깨끗한 식수에 대한 접근을 방해하며, 학교 폐쇄로 이어지기도 합니다. 

해당 연구는 보고서 “기후위기에 태어나다 2: 전례 없는 삶 – 변화하는 기후 속에서 아동의 권리를 보호하기”에 실렸으며, 2020년에 태어난 아동이 홍수, 열대성 사이클론, 가뭄, 산불 등 다양한 기후재해로부터 받는 피해 역시 1.5°C 목표 달성 시 대폭 줄어든다고 분석했습니다. 

BRUSSELS, 7 May 2025 – Almost a third of today’s five-year-olds – about 38 million children – will be spared a lifetime’s “unprecedented” exposure to extreme heat [1] if the world meets the 1.5°C warming target by 2100, Save the Children said. 

Ahead of the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, research released by Save the Children and Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) found that under current climate commitments – which will likely see a global temperature rise of 2.7°C  above pre-industrial levels – about 100 million of the estimated 120 million children born in 2020, or 83%, will face “unprecedented” lifetime exposure to extreme heat.  

However, if the world limits warming to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target [2], this would reduce the number of five-year-olds impacted to 62 million – a difference of 38 million – highlighting the urgency to protect children through rapidly phasing out the use and subsidy of fossil fuels.  

Dangerous heat is deadly for children, taking an immense toll on their physical and mental health, disrupting access to food and clean water and forcing schools to close. 

Researchers defined an “unprecedented” life as an exposure to climate extremes that someone would have less than a 1 in 10,000 chance of experiencing during their life in a world without human-induced climate change. 

The research, published in the report Born into the Climate Crisis 2. An Unprecedented Life: Protecting Children's Rights in a Changing Climate [3] also found that meeting the 1.5°C target would protect millions of children born in 2020 from the severest impacts of other climate related disasters such as crop failures, floods, tropical cyclones, droughts and wildfires.

The report found that, for children born in 2020, if global temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C rather than reaching 2.7°C above pre-industrial levels: 

•    About 38 million would be spared from facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves; 
o    About 8 million would avoid unprecedented lifetime exposure to crop failures;  
o    About 5 million would be spared from unprecedented lifetime exposure to river floods; 
o    About 5 million would avoid unprecedented lifetime exposure to tropical cyclones; 
o    About 2 million would avoid unprecedented lifetime exposure to droughts;   
o    About 1.5 million children would be spared unprecedented lifetime exposure to wildfires.  

Climate extremes – which are becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change – are increasingly harming children, forcing them from their homes, putting food out of reach, damaging schools and increasing risks like child marriage as they are forced out of education and into poverty and food shortages. 

As well as comparing conditions under 1.5°C and 2.7°C scenarios, the report also examines a scenario in which global temperatures rise to 3.5°C by 2100, which will lead to about 92% of children born in 2020 – about 111 million children [4] – living with unprecedented heatwave exposure over their lifetime.  

While we need a rapid phase-out of the use and subsidy of fossil fuels to stick to the 1.5°C target, we must not lose sight of solutions, Save the Children said. The report highlights initiatives like increased climate finance, child-centred and locally led adaptation and increasing the participation of children in shaping climate action. 

Summary of Save the Children’s recommendations:  

Leaders must:

o    Take ambitious and urgent action now to limit warming to a maximum of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, including by rapidly and equitably phasing out the use, subsidising and financing of fossil fuels, with high-income and historically high-emitting countries leading the way.  

o    Urgently close the adaptation gap and provide loss and damage funding through the provision of new and additional climate finance, prioritising children and child-critical social services, with a particular focus on reaching children most at risk. Climate finance should be delivered primarily in the form of grants, particularly for adaptation and loss and damage. 

o    Children, their rights, voices and unique needs and vulnerabilities must be centred in international climate plans and agreements, including the upcoming submission of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0), as well as building and investing in the climate resilience of child-critical services such as health and nutrition, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), education, child protection, and social protection. 

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